Belarusian Sovereignty Challenges
Belarusian Sovereignty Challenges years, a series of internal and external crises have profoundly uprooted the Lukashenka regime’s balancing act between Russia and the EU. The first of these – large-scale anti-regime protests that followed another fraudulent presidential election in August 2020 – revealed the collision between the regime’s self-preservation and society’s desire for change.
The second of these – the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine – also changed the structural environment for the regime. By offering a launch pad for the war and providing support to Russian political and military efforts, Belarus increased its dependency on Moscow. This has weakened the regime, while at the same time making it harder for Minsk to play a mediator role in efforts to end the conflict.
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Furthermore, the fact that the country’s geographic location (along with the absence of significant mountain ranges) has historically posed few obstacles for people – and by extension armies – to move across its territory means that it has regularly been militarily contested as a borderland between great powers. The most current case is the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the removal of its non-nuclear status from the Constitution, which has allowed for the stationing of Russian military equipment on its soil.
As Belarusian sovereignty challenges deepen, it is critical that the EU redoubles its commitment to the vision of a free and democratic Belarus with a clear path to EU membership. At the same time, it must take steps to prevent the Kremlin’s further absorption of Belarus into its strategic space.